BANGKOK—Moody's Investors Service Inc. said Wednesday its negative outlook on Vietnam reflects balance of payments uncertainty, with any change contingent on recent tightening measures arresting inflationary pressures and containing the volatile exchange rate.
The ratings agency also warned, however, that the rating could face further downward pressure if there was continuing erosion of the Southeast Asian nation's foreign-exchange reserves—estimated at $12.2 billion at the end of 2010, compared with a peak of $25.8 billion in February 2008.
Moody's in December downgraded its rating on Vietnamese government debt to B1 from Ba3 because of the threat of a balance of payments crisis, depreciation pressure on the dong, and rising inflation.
In a report released Wednesday, it said the country has struggled to balance growth desires with macroeconomic stability, adding that "policy accommodation over the past few years has directly contributed to overheating pressures, which have in turn led to high inflation and deterioration in the external payments position."
The Vietnamese government has recently reversed its long-standing policy focusing on growth, unveiling a series of measures to combat major imbalances in the economy, which have been highlighted by increasing price pressures. Consumer prices rose 13.89% in March from a year earlier, the fastest on-year pace since February 2009, and far higher than the government's target of capping inflation at 7% this year.
The government has said it will tighten monetary and fiscal policies, such as by trimming public investment and the budget deficit, boosting domestic production and rebalancing trade. Its credit-growth target will also be lowered, while the State Bank of Vietnam has raised its key interest rates several times in recent months.
At the same time, the government has also announced potentially inflation-stoking policies such as sharp increases in electricity and fuel prices, along with a spike in wages.
"It remains unclear whether the barrage of tightening measures after the Vietnamese new year represents a permanent departure from the previous policy framework, or whether this is merely an extended episode of "stop-and-go" policy making that has exacerbated the imbalances in the economy," Moody's said.
WSJ
Vietnam thwarts Easter/centennial celebrations in Hanoi
HANOI, Vietnam (BP)--Authorities in Hanoi prevented much-anticipated Easter-themed celebrations of the "Centennial of Protestantism" in Vietnam featuring Luis Palau on Friday and Saturday, April 15-16, Compass Direct News reported April 18.
In Ho Chi Minh City the previous weekend, however, similar celebrations featuring Palau -- the first preaching appearance by a U.S.-based evangelist at a major event since the 1975 communist victory in Vietnam -- received last-minute approval and went ahead, with an estimated 1,800 decisions for Christ in response to the evangelist's messages.
In Hanoi, the celebrations were thwarted although organizers had received a verbal promise that they could proceed. An interchurch organizing committee for the planned celebrations with Palau had submitted a request for permission well in advance and had made elaborate preparations, Compass reported.
The organizers said they were disappointed but not entirely surprised by the communist government's action.
"The authorities have clearly demonstrated to the world what we experience regularly -- that their promises, whether verbal or written, cannot be trusted," one church leader who requested anonymity told Compass.
Asked to speculate on the reasons for the government's ultimate refusal, another key church leader said, "I don't know why, but it almost seems as if the government is deliberately damaging its own reputation."
Shortly after 1 p.m. on April 15 after long negotiations, authorities gave verbal assent for the celebrations to proceed, promising the required written permission would be issued imminently. The government-approved venue was the Dien Kinh My Dinh Sports Complex, a state-of-the-art indoor track and field stadium that reportedly holds 3,100 people in Hanoi's Tu Liem district. Organizers had requested a venue with considerably larger capacity, Compass reported.
After receiving the verbal promise, organizers said they went directly to the sports complex hoping to begin preparing the sound and lighting systems. They were not given access.
When no written permission was forthcoming by the scheduled start at 7 p.m., organizers said they were forced to turn away many hundreds of people arriving from the provinces by chartered buses. They said they urged the people to return home quietly and to pray for the event scheduled for the next evening.
Late Friday evening, the organizing committee received written permission from the Hanoi People's Committee to hold what was to have been the second night of the event on Saturday, April 16. They said they immediately posted the document on Vietnam's most popular Christian website www.hoithanh.com.
Apparently, however, public security and city authorities quietly overrode the reluctant permission granted by Vietnam's religion bureaucracy. Organizers told Compass that even with the official letter from the People's Committee, several hurdles had remained. They still needed to secure a contract from the sports complex on Saturday morning for use of the facilities and they had yet to request the Committee for Religious Affairs for permission for Palau to speak.
Early on Saturday, pastor Nguyen Huu Mac, president of the registered Evangelical Church of Vietnam (North), or ECVN(N), who had signed the request, went with colleagues from unregistered house churches to the sports complex to pursue the contract. When they were told that Saturday was not a work day, they went to the Tu Liem district office.
There they were stalled for several more hours by fruitless discussion. District officials eventually told them that although the sports complex was in their area of the city, it was owned and managed by another entity over which they had no control.
Finally, at 1 p.m., the manager of the sports complex arrived. Compass reported that the manager proceeded to give the Christian leaders unreasonable conditions for a contract. For instance, the manager said they could not enter the complex to prepare until 4:30 p.m. -- hardly enough time for the scheduled 7 p.m. start. Organizers said he further told them that the sports complex would retain control over who and how many entered the building; he said they would not honor the tickets/invitations that had been widely distributed by organizers but would distribute their own and count every head.
The organizers sensed trouble.
Faced with such government duplicity and control over their event and without enough time to set up properly, church leaders said they unanimously decided they could not proceed with integrity. Shortly after 4 p.m., they issued an indefinite postponement notice.
Reached by Compass late Saturday Hanoi time, a Luis Palau spokesman reported that the evangelist had just spent significant time encouraging the tired organizers. Palau told them that the Lord would bless their diligence and predicted that they would soon reap a great spiritual harvest, according to the spokesman. In a few years, Palau said, they would look on the disappointments of the weekend as insignificant.
Despite their disappointment, church leaders took note of gains: The effort to stage the events, they said, marked unprecedented cooperation among various groups, with the ECVN(N), the only registered church based in the north, applying for the permission document on behalf of all groups. Cooperating in the organizing were northern house churches belonging to the Hanoi Christian Fellowship and southern-based house churches belonging to the Vietnam Evangelical Fellowship as well as some smaller groups.
Together, the church leaders said, they determined not to bow to government manipulation and pressure.
"Clearly someone at the top disallowed these events and then left it to clumsy underlings to create bureaucratic obstacles," a longtime overseas Vietnam analyst told Compass. "Most people will see through this ruse and recognize simple lack of religious freedom."
It is uncertain whether the cancellation of the events in Hanoi will affect plans for the Evangelical Church of Vietnam, both the northern and southern entities, to include Palau in their June centennial celebrations in Danang, Hanoi, and Ho Chi Minh City. Permission has been long requested, but so far the government has only given general verbal approval.
In Ho Chi Minh City the previous weekend, permission requested months in advance was granted -- but at a venue several kilometers from the one organizers sought just three hours before the first celebration of the 1911-2011 Protestantism centennial in Vietnam.
The venue change meant equipment located in one part of the city had to be moved to the new location before it could be assembled, church leaders said. It also meant notifying many thousands of people invited to one venue about the change to the other, they said.
Given the lack of government cooperation, the leader of Vietnam's Evangelical Fellowship (of house churches) said the fact that the event went ahead at all was "an absolute miracle."
By word-of-mouth, Internet, Twitter, Facebook and especially phone texting, thousands of people got word of the change as technicians and hundreds of volunteers made heroic efforts to ready the new venue. Vietnamese police proved surprisingly helpful in redirecting people to the new location.
At 9 p.m. -- two hours after the schedule start of the first service on Saturday, April 9 -- huge banners reading "PRAY FOR VIETNAM" and "GOD LOVES VIETNAM" were unfurled to welcome Palau's team and thousands of people to the festival, which joyfully combined the centennial celebration with Easter.
After opening prayers and welcome by Vietnamese leaders, Palau's son Andrew Palau gave testimony to how God delivered him from alcoholism and drug addiction and called him to Christian service. An Intel Corp. vice president also gave testimony to how God blessed his life and his business. Musician Don Moen, known for songs such as "Give Thanks," "God is So Good" and "God will Make a Way," provided inspirational music followed by exuberant congregational singing.
Palau began his evangelistic message at 11 p.m., with about 800 coming forward as he invited people to receive Christ. It was after midnight before people began to depart for their homes.
The second celebration proceeded Sunday evening, April 10, in a more orderly and timely fashion. More than 12,000 people filled the seats and most of the chairs set up on the stadium field. In response to Palau's second message, more than 1,000 people, according to one organizer, came forward in response to the call to follow Christ.
Photos and Vietnamese text on the events are readily available at www.hoithanh.com, and clips of the arrival of Palau and Moen in Vietnam may be found on YouTube. They were welcomed at Ho Chi Minh City's Tan Son Nhut airport by hundreds of enthusiastic young people carrying banners and flowers.
Nguyen Xuan Duc, president of the Vietnam World Christian Fellowship, said he was very encouraged about the future of the church in Vietnam.
"These are watershed days for Protestantism in Vietnam," Duc said. "There is no fear, but rather wonderful spontaneity and irrepressible joy. Events like this happen in spite of the government and without the blessing of some overly conservative church leaders. What we see is young, vibrant, lay-led, internationally connected and very media-savvy."
While Palau and others spoke on Sunday night, also appearing in Ho Chi Minh City was iconic singer/songwriter Bob Dylan -- whose performance sold only about half of the 8,000 seats at RMIT university.
Baptist Press
In Ho Chi Minh City the previous weekend, however, similar celebrations featuring Palau -- the first preaching appearance by a U.S.-based evangelist at a major event since the 1975 communist victory in Vietnam -- received last-minute approval and went ahead, with an estimated 1,800 decisions for Christ in response to the evangelist's messages.
In Hanoi, the celebrations were thwarted although organizers had received a verbal promise that they could proceed. An interchurch organizing committee for the planned celebrations with Palau had submitted a request for permission well in advance and had made elaborate preparations, Compass reported.
The organizers said they were disappointed but not entirely surprised by the communist government's action.
"The authorities have clearly demonstrated to the world what we experience regularly -- that their promises, whether verbal or written, cannot be trusted," one church leader who requested anonymity told Compass.
Asked to speculate on the reasons for the government's ultimate refusal, another key church leader said, "I don't know why, but it almost seems as if the government is deliberately damaging its own reputation."
Shortly after 1 p.m. on April 15 after long negotiations, authorities gave verbal assent for the celebrations to proceed, promising the required written permission would be issued imminently. The government-approved venue was the Dien Kinh My Dinh Sports Complex, a state-of-the-art indoor track and field stadium that reportedly holds 3,100 people in Hanoi's Tu Liem district. Organizers had requested a venue with considerably larger capacity, Compass reported.
After receiving the verbal promise, organizers said they went directly to the sports complex hoping to begin preparing the sound and lighting systems. They were not given access.
When no written permission was forthcoming by the scheduled start at 7 p.m., organizers said they were forced to turn away many hundreds of people arriving from the provinces by chartered buses. They said they urged the people to return home quietly and to pray for the event scheduled for the next evening.
Late Friday evening, the organizing committee received written permission from the Hanoi People's Committee to hold what was to have been the second night of the event on Saturday, April 16. They said they immediately posted the document on Vietnam's most popular Christian website www.hoithanh.com.
Apparently, however, public security and city authorities quietly overrode the reluctant permission granted by Vietnam's religion bureaucracy. Organizers told Compass that even with the official letter from the People's Committee, several hurdles had remained. They still needed to secure a contract from the sports complex on Saturday morning for use of the facilities and they had yet to request the Committee for Religious Affairs for permission for Palau to speak.
Early on Saturday, pastor Nguyen Huu Mac, president of the registered Evangelical Church of Vietnam (North), or ECVN(N), who had signed the request, went with colleagues from unregistered house churches to the sports complex to pursue the contract. When they were told that Saturday was not a work day, they went to the Tu Liem district office.
There they were stalled for several more hours by fruitless discussion. District officials eventually told them that although the sports complex was in their area of the city, it was owned and managed by another entity over which they had no control.
Finally, at 1 p.m., the manager of the sports complex arrived. Compass reported that the manager proceeded to give the Christian leaders unreasonable conditions for a contract. For instance, the manager said they could not enter the complex to prepare until 4:30 p.m. -- hardly enough time for the scheduled 7 p.m. start. Organizers said he further told them that the sports complex would retain control over who and how many entered the building; he said they would not honor the tickets/invitations that had been widely distributed by organizers but would distribute their own and count every head.
The organizers sensed trouble.
Faced with such government duplicity and control over their event and without enough time to set up properly, church leaders said they unanimously decided they could not proceed with integrity. Shortly after 4 p.m., they issued an indefinite postponement notice.
Reached by Compass late Saturday Hanoi time, a Luis Palau spokesman reported that the evangelist had just spent significant time encouraging the tired organizers. Palau told them that the Lord would bless their diligence and predicted that they would soon reap a great spiritual harvest, according to the spokesman. In a few years, Palau said, they would look on the disappointments of the weekend as insignificant.
Despite their disappointment, church leaders took note of gains: The effort to stage the events, they said, marked unprecedented cooperation among various groups, with the ECVN(N), the only registered church based in the north, applying for the permission document on behalf of all groups. Cooperating in the organizing were northern house churches belonging to the Hanoi Christian Fellowship and southern-based house churches belonging to the Vietnam Evangelical Fellowship as well as some smaller groups.
Together, the church leaders said, they determined not to bow to government manipulation and pressure.
"Clearly someone at the top disallowed these events and then left it to clumsy underlings to create bureaucratic obstacles," a longtime overseas Vietnam analyst told Compass. "Most people will see through this ruse and recognize simple lack of religious freedom."
It is uncertain whether the cancellation of the events in Hanoi will affect plans for the Evangelical Church of Vietnam, both the northern and southern entities, to include Palau in their June centennial celebrations in Danang, Hanoi, and Ho Chi Minh City. Permission has been long requested, but so far the government has only given general verbal approval.
In Ho Chi Minh City the previous weekend, permission requested months in advance was granted -- but at a venue several kilometers from the one organizers sought just three hours before the first celebration of the 1911-2011 Protestantism centennial in Vietnam.
The venue change meant equipment located in one part of the city had to be moved to the new location before it could be assembled, church leaders said. It also meant notifying many thousands of people invited to one venue about the change to the other, they said.
Given the lack of government cooperation, the leader of Vietnam's Evangelical Fellowship (of house churches) said the fact that the event went ahead at all was "an absolute miracle."
By word-of-mouth, Internet, Twitter, Facebook and especially phone texting, thousands of people got word of the change as technicians and hundreds of volunteers made heroic efforts to ready the new venue. Vietnamese police proved surprisingly helpful in redirecting people to the new location.
At 9 p.m. -- two hours after the schedule start of the first service on Saturday, April 9 -- huge banners reading "PRAY FOR VIETNAM" and "GOD LOVES VIETNAM" were unfurled to welcome Palau's team and thousands of people to the festival, which joyfully combined the centennial celebration with Easter.
After opening prayers and welcome by Vietnamese leaders, Palau's son Andrew Palau gave testimony to how God delivered him from alcoholism and drug addiction and called him to Christian service. An Intel Corp. vice president also gave testimony to how God blessed his life and his business. Musician Don Moen, known for songs such as "Give Thanks," "God is So Good" and "God will Make a Way," provided inspirational music followed by exuberant congregational singing.
Palau began his evangelistic message at 11 p.m., with about 800 coming forward as he invited people to receive Christ. It was after midnight before people began to depart for their homes.
The second celebration proceeded Sunday evening, April 10, in a more orderly and timely fashion. More than 12,000 people filled the seats and most of the chairs set up on the stadium field. In response to Palau's second message, more than 1,000 people, according to one organizer, came forward in response to the call to follow Christ.
Photos and Vietnamese text on the events are readily available at www.hoithanh.com, and clips of the arrival of Palau and Moen in Vietnam may be found on YouTube. They were welcomed at Ho Chi Minh City's Tan Son Nhut airport by hundreds of enthusiastic young people carrying banners and flowers.
Nguyen Xuan Duc, president of the Vietnam World Christian Fellowship, said he was very encouraged about the future of the church in Vietnam.
"These are watershed days for Protestantism in Vietnam," Duc said. "There is no fear, but rather wonderful spontaneity and irrepressible joy. Events like this happen in spite of the government and without the blessing of some overly conservative church leaders. What we see is young, vibrant, lay-led, internationally connected and very media-savvy."
While Palau and others spoke on Sunday night, also appearing in Ho Chi Minh City was iconic singer/songwriter Bob Dylan -- whose performance sold only about half of the 8,000 seats at RMIT university.
Baptist Press
US: Human rights worsen in China; Vietnam, Thailand step up Internet censorship
WASHINGTON — The United States said Friday that rights abuses have worsened in China in the past two months with the detentions of dozens of activists, while repression of dissidents has increased in Vietnam and Internet censorship has widened in Thailand.
The situation has improved in Indonesia, despite the persecution of some religious minorities, but conditions remain grim in North Korea and Myanmar, which continues to persecute its opponents and burn down villages of ethnic minorities.
The findings were part of the State Department's annual assessment of human rights around the world which was released by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton in Washington.
During 2010, China had stepped up restrictions on its critics and tightened control of civil society and had increased to limit freedom of speech and Internet access, the report said.
"We have seen negative trends that are appearing to worsen in the first part of 2011," Clinton told a news conference, singling out for mention the detention of prominent artist and government critic Ai Weiwei, who was arrested last Sunday.
She urged the immediate release of Ai and dozens of public interest lawyers, writers, intellectuals and activists detained since February for "exercising their internationally recognized right to free expression."
China says Ai is being investigated for economic crimes, but has given no details. Officials at the Chinese Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to calls seeking comment on the report.
The U.S. alleged that tens of thousands of political prisoners are incarcerated in China, although officials continue to deny detaining anyone for their political or religious views. It said thousands of state security personnel monitor electronic communications, and Internet cafes are required to install software that allows officials to monitor customers' usage.
Another authoritarian government, Vietnam, has increased its suppression of dissent, the report said, arresting at least 25 political activists in 2010 and convicting 14 who were arrested in the past three years. Internet freedom was further restricted as the government orchestrated attacks against critical websites and spied on dissident bloggers, it said.
However, Internet usage continued to grow, with 32 per cent of the population having access. Despite government attempts to block Facebook, it has nearly two million users in Vietnam, the report said.
In Thailand, a key U.S. ally and a democracy that was beset last year by violent political unrest, the report noted a significant increase in Internet censorship. The Thai government closely monitored and blocked thousands of websites that expressed anti-government sentiment or were deemed critical of the revered monarchy.
Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, the U.S. said respect for human rights continued to improve in Indonesia — a democracy with which Washington is forging closer ties. But in comments likely to irk human rights groups, Clinton said that Indonesia is facing up to "preventing abuses by its security forces and acting against religious intolerance."
In January, three Indonesian soldiers went on trial for torturing two Papuan men, but were only sentenced to 10 months. Critics have also accused President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono of remaining largely silent on recent attacks on Christians and members of Ahmadiyah — a minority Muslim sect which has been banned by several provincial governments.
The report said military-dominated Myanmar has released opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, but its conduct of November elections was criticized as neither free nor fair. Military forces in Shan and Karen states displaced civilians from their villages, which were often burned to the ground. It said the number of children in the government army has reportedly risen to 12,000 children.
In North Korea, the human rights situation remained grim, with defectors and aid groups indicating that severe and systematic abuses occurred throughout the country's extensive network of prisons and detention centres. The report said international groups were denied access to the country, making it impossible to assess the validity of the reports.
The Canadian Press
The situation has improved in Indonesia, despite the persecution of some religious minorities, but conditions remain grim in North Korea and Myanmar, which continues to persecute its opponents and burn down villages of ethnic minorities.
The findings were part of the State Department's annual assessment of human rights around the world which was released by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton in Washington.
During 2010, China had stepped up restrictions on its critics and tightened control of civil society and had increased to limit freedom of speech and Internet access, the report said.
"We have seen negative trends that are appearing to worsen in the first part of 2011," Clinton told a news conference, singling out for mention the detention of prominent artist and government critic Ai Weiwei, who was arrested last Sunday.
She urged the immediate release of Ai and dozens of public interest lawyers, writers, intellectuals and activists detained since February for "exercising their internationally recognized right to free expression."
China says Ai is being investigated for economic crimes, but has given no details. Officials at the Chinese Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to calls seeking comment on the report.
The U.S. alleged that tens of thousands of political prisoners are incarcerated in China, although officials continue to deny detaining anyone for their political or religious views. It said thousands of state security personnel monitor electronic communications, and Internet cafes are required to install software that allows officials to monitor customers' usage.
Another authoritarian government, Vietnam, has increased its suppression of dissent, the report said, arresting at least 25 political activists in 2010 and convicting 14 who were arrested in the past three years. Internet freedom was further restricted as the government orchestrated attacks against critical websites and spied on dissident bloggers, it said.
However, Internet usage continued to grow, with 32 per cent of the population having access. Despite government attempts to block Facebook, it has nearly two million users in Vietnam, the report said.
In Thailand, a key U.S. ally and a democracy that was beset last year by violent political unrest, the report noted a significant increase in Internet censorship. The Thai government closely monitored and blocked thousands of websites that expressed anti-government sentiment or were deemed critical of the revered monarchy.
Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, the U.S. said respect for human rights continued to improve in Indonesia — a democracy with which Washington is forging closer ties. But in comments likely to irk human rights groups, Clinton said that Indonesia is facing up to "preventing abuses by its security forces and acting against religious intolerance."
In January, three Indonesian soldiers went on trial for torturing two Papuan men, but were only sentenced to 10 months. Critics have also accused President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono of remaining largely silent on recent attacks on Christians and members of Ahmadiyah — a minority Muslim sect which has been banned by several provincial governments.
The report said military-dominated Myanmar has released opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, but its conduct of November elections was criticized as neither free nor fair. Military forces in Shan and Karen states displaced civilians from their villages, which were often burned to the ground. It said the number of children in the government army has reportedly risen to 12,000 children.
In North Korea, the human rights situation remained grim, with defectors and aid groups indicating that severe and systematic abuses occurred throughout the country's extensive network of prisons and detention centres. The report said international groups were denied access to the country, making it impossible to assess the validity of the reports.
The Canadian Press
Water wars? Thirsty, energy-short China stirs fear
The wall of water raced through narrow Himalayan gorges in northeast India, gathering speed as it raked the banks of towering trees and boulders. When the torrent struck their island in the Brahmaputra river, the villagers remember, it took only moments to obliterate their houses, possessions and livestock.
No one knows exactly how the disaster happened, but everyone knows whom to blame: neighboring China.
"We don't trust the Chinese," says fisherman Akshay Sarkar at the resettlement site where he has lived since the 2000 flood. "They gave us no warning. They may do it again."
About 800 kilometers (500 miles) east, in northern Thailand, Chamlong Saengphet stands in the Mekong river, in water that comes only up to her shins. She is collecting edible river weeds from dwindling beds. A neighbor has hung up his fishing nets, his catches now too meager.
Using words bordering on curses, they point upstream, toward China.
The blame game, voiced in vulnerable river towns and Asian capitals from Pakistan to Vietnam, is rooted in fear that China's accelerating program of damming every major river flowing from the Tibetan plateau will trigger natural disasters, degrade fragile ecologies, divert vital water supplies.
A few analysts and environmental advocates even speak of water as a future trigger for war or diplomatic strong-arming, though others strongly doubt it will come to that. Still, the remapping of the water flow in the world's most heavily populated and thirstiest region is happening on a gigantic scale, with potentially strategic implications.
On the eight great Tibetan rivers alone, almost 20 dams have been built or are under construction while some 40 more are planned or proposed.
China is hardly alone in disrupting the region's water flows. Others are doing it with potentially even worse consequences. But China's vast thirst for power and water, its control over the sources of the rivers and its ever-growing political clout make it a singular target of criticism and suspicion.
"Whether China intends to use water as a political weapon or not, it is acquiring the capability to turn off the tap if it wants to - a leverage it can use to keep any riparian neighbors on good behavior," says Brahma Chellaney, an analyst at New Delhi's Center for Policy Research and author of the forthcoming "Water: Asia's New Battlefield."
Analyst Neil Padukone calls it "the biggest potential point of contention between the two Asian giants," China and India. But the stakes may be even higher since those eight Tibetan rivers serve a vast west-east arc of 1.8 billion people stretching from Pakistan to Vietnam's Mekong river delta.
Suspicions are heightened by Beijing's lack of transparency and refusal to share most hydrological and other data. Only China, along with Turkey, has refused to sign a key 1997 U.N. convention on transnational rivers.
Beijing gave no notice when it began building three dams on the Mekong - the first completed in 1993 - or the $1.2 billion Zangmu dam, the first on the mainstream of the 2,880-kilometer (1,790-mile) Brahmaputra which was started last November and hailed in official media as "a landmark priority project."
The 2000 flood that hit Sarkar's village, is widely believed to have been caused by the burst of an earthen dam wall on a Brahmaputra tributary. But China has kept silent.
"Until today, the Indian government has no clue about what happened," says Ravindranath, who heads the Rural Volunteer Center. He uses only one name.
Tibet's spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, has also warned of looming dangers stemming from the Tibetan plateau.
"It's something very, very essential. So, since millions of Indians use water coming from the Himalayan glaciers... I think you (India) should express more serious concern. This is nothing to do with politics, just everybody's interests, including Chinese people," he said in New Delhi last month.
Beijing normally counters such censure by pointing out that the bulk of water from the Tibetan rivers springs from downstream tributaries, with only 13-16 percent originating in China.
Officials also say that the dams can benefit their neighbors, easing droughts and floods by regulating flow, and that hydroelectric power reduces China's carbon footprint.
China "will fully consider impacts to downstream countries," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu recently told The Associated Press. "We have clarified several times that the dam being built on the Brahmaputra River has a small storage capacity. It will not have large impact on water flow or the ecological environment of downstream."
For some of China's neighbors, the problem is that they too are building controversial dams and may look hypocritical if they criticize China too loudly.
The four-nation Mekong River Commission has expressed concerns not just about the Chinese dams but about a host of others built or planned in downstream countries.
In northeast India, a broad-based movement is fighting central government plans to erect more than 160 dams in the region, and Laos and Cambodia have proposed plans for 11 Mekong dams, sparking environmental protest.
Indian and other governments play down any threats from the Asian colossus. "I was reassured that (the Zangmu dam) was not a project designed to divert water and affect the welfare and availability of water to countries in the lower reaches," India's Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao said after talks with his Chinese counterpart late last year.
But at the grass roots, and among activists and even some government technocrats, criticism is expressed more readily.
"Everyone knows what China is doing, but won't talk about it. China has real power now. If it says something, everyone follows," says Somkiat Khuengchiangsa, a Thai environmental advocate.
Neither the Indian nor Chinese government responded to specific questions from the AP about the dams, but Beijing is signaling that it will relaunch mega-projects after a break of several years in efforts to meet skyrocketing demands for energy and water, reduce dependence on coal and lift some 300 million people out of poverty.
Official media recently said China was poised to put up dams on the still pristine Nu River, known as the Salween downstream. Seven years ago as many as 13 dams were set to go up until Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao ordered a moratorium.
That ban is regarded as the first and perhaps biggest victory of China's nascent green movement.
"An improper exploitation of water resources by countries on the upper reaches is going to bring about environmental, social and geological risks," Yu Xiaogang, director of the Yunnan Green Watershed, told The Associated Press. "Countries along the rivers have already formed their own way of using water resources. Water shortages could easily ignite extreme nationalist sentiment and escalate into a regional war."
But there is little chance the activists will prevail.
"There is no alternative to dams in sight in China," says Ed Grumbine, an American author on Chinese dams. Grumbine, currently with the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Yunnan province, notes that under its last five-year state plan, China failed to meet its hydroelectric targets and is now playing catch-up in its 2011-2015 plan as it strives to derive 15 percent of energy needs from non-fossil sources, mainly hydroelectric and nuclear.
The arithmetic pointing to more dam-building is clear: China would need 140 megawatts of extra hydroelectric power to meet its goal. Even if all the dams on the Nu go up, they would provide only 21 megawatts.
The demand for water region-wide will also escalate, sparking perhaps that greatest anxieties - that China will divert large quantities from the Tibetan plateau for domestic use.
Noting that Himalayan glaciers which feed the rivers are melting due to global warming, India's Strategic Foresight Group last year estimated that in the coming 20 years India, China, Nepal and Bangladesh will face a depletion of almost 275 billion cubic meters (360 billion cubic yards) of annual renewable water.
Padukone expects China will have to divert water from Tibet to its dry eastern provinces. One plan for rerouting the Brahmaputra was outlined in an officially sanctioned 2005 book by a Chinese former army officer, Li Ling. Its title: "Tibet's Waters Will Save China,"
Analyst Chellaney believes "the issue is not whether China will reroute the Brahmaputra, but when." He cites Chinese researchers and officials as saying that after 2014 work will begin on tapping rivers flowing from the Tibetan plateau to neighboring countries Such a move, he says, would be tantamount to a declaration of war on India.
Others are skeptical. Tashi Tsering, a Tibetan environmentalist at the University of British Columbia who is otherwise critical of China's policies, calls a Brahmaputra diversion "a pipe dream of some Chinese planners."
Grumbine shares the skepticism. "The situation would have to be very dire for China to turn off the taps because the consequences would be huge," he said. "China would alienate every one of its neighbors and historically the Chinese have been very sensitive about maintaining secure borders."
Whatever else may happen, riverside inhabitants along the Mekong and Brahmaputra say the future shock is now.
A fisherman from his youth, Boonrian Chinnarat says the Mekong giant catfish, the world's largest freshwater fish, has all but vanished from the vicinity of Thailand's Had Krai village, other once bountiful species have been depleted, and he and fellow fishermen have sold their nets. He blames the Chinese dams.
Phumee Boontom, headman of nearby Pak Ing village, warns that "If the Chinese keep the water and continue to build more dams, life along the Mekong will change forever." Already, he says, he has seen drastic variations in water levels following dam constructions, "like the tides of the ocean -- low and high in one day."
Jeremy Bird, who heads the Mekong commission, an intergovernmental body of Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and Laos, sees a tendency to blame China for water-related troubles even when they are purely the result of nature. He says diplomacy is needed, and believes "engagement with China is improving."
Grumbine agrees. "Given the enormous demand for water in China, India and Southeast Asia, if you maintain the attitude of sovereign state, we are lost," he says. "Scarcity in a zero sum situation can lead to conflict but it can also goad countries into more cooperative behavior. It's a bleak picture, but I'm not without hope."
No one knows exactly how the disaster happened, but everyone knows whom to blame: neighboring China.
"We don't trust the Chinese," says fisherman Akshay Sarkar at the resettlement site where he has lived since the 2000 flood. "They gave us no warning. They may do it again."
About 800 kilometers (500 miles) east, in northern Thailand, Chamlong Saengphet stands in the Mekong river, in water that comes only up to her shins. She is collecting edible river weeds from dwindling beds. A neighbor has hung up his fishing nets, his catches now too meager.
Using words bordering on curses, they point upstream, toward China.
The blame game, voiced in vulnerable river towns and Asian capitals from Pakistan to Vietnam, is rooted in fear that China's accelerating program of damming every major river flowing from the Tibetan plateau will trigger natural disasters, degrade fragile ecologies, divert vital water supplies.
A few analysts and environmental advocates even speak of water as a future trigger for war or diplomatic strong-arming, though others strongly doubt it will come to that. Still, the remapping of the water flow in the world's most heavily populated and thirstiest region is happening on a gigantic scale, with potentially strategic implications.
On the eight great Tibetan rivers alone, almost 20 dams have been built or are under construction while some 40 more are planned or proposed.
China is hardly alone in disrupting the region's water flows. Others are doing it with potentially even worse consequences. But China's vast thirst for power and water, its control over the sources of the rivers and its ever-growing political clout make it a singular target of criticism and suspicion.
"Whether China intends to use water as a political weapon or not, it is acquiring the capability to turn off the tap if it wants to - a leverage it can use to keep any riparian neighbors on good behavior," says Brahma Chellaney, an analyst at New Delhi's Center for Policy Research and author of the forthcoming "Water: Asia's New Battlefield."
Analyst Neil Padukone calls it "the biggest potential point of contention between the two Asian giants," China and India. But the stakes may be even higher since those eight Tibetan rivers serve a vast west-east arc of 1.8 billion people stretching from Pakistan to Vietnam's Mekong river delta.
Suspicions are heightened by Beijing's lack of transparency and refusal to share most hydrological and other data. Only China, along with Turkey, has refused to sign a key 1997 U.N. convention on transnational rivers.
Beijing gave no notice when it began building three dams on the Mekong - the first completed in 1993 - or the $1.2 billion Zangmu dam, the first on the mainstream of the 2,880-kilometer (1,790-mile) Brahmaputra which was started last November and hailed in official media as "a landmark priority project."
The 2000 flood that hit Sarkar's village, is widely believed to have been caused by the burst of an earthen dam wall on a Brahmaputra tributary. But China has kept silent.
"Until today, the Indian government has no clue about what happened," says Ravindranath, who heads the Rural Volunteer Center. He uses only one name.
Tibet's spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, has also warned of looming dangers stemming from the Tibetan plateau.
"It's something very, very essential. So, since millions of Indians use water coming from the Himalayan glaciers... I think you (India) should express more serious concern. This is nothing to do with politics, just everybody's interests, including Chinese people," he said in New Delhi last month.
Beijing normally counters such censure by pointing out that the bulk of water from the Tibetan rivers springs from downstream tributaries, with only 13-16 percent originating in China.
Officials also say that the dams can benefit their neighbors, easing droughts and floods by regulating flow, and that hydroelectric power reduces China's carbon footprint.
China "will fully consider impacts to downstream countries," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu recently told The Associated Press. "We have clarified several times that the dam being built on the Brahmaputra River has a small storage capacity. It will not have large impact on water flow or the ecological environment of downstream."
For some of China's neighbors, the problem is that they too are building controversial dams and may look hypocritical if they criticize China too loudly.
The four-nation Mekong River Commission has expressed concerns not just about the Chinese dams but about a host of others built or planned in downstream countries.
In northeast India, a broad-based movement is fighting central government plans to erect more than 160 dams in the region, and Laos and Cambodia have proposed plans for 11 Mekong dams, sparking environmental protest.
Indian and other governments play down any threats from the Asian colossus. "I was reassured that (the Zangmu dam) was not a project designed to divert water and affect the welfare and availability of water to countries in the lower reaches," India's Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao said after talks with his Chinese counterpart late last year.
But at the grass roots, and among activists and even some government technocrats, criticism is expressed more readily.
"Everyone knows what China is doing, but won't talk about it. China has real power now. If it says something, everyone follows," says Somkiat Khuengchiangsa, a Thai environmental advocate.
Neither the Indian nor Chinese government responded to specific questions from the AP about the dams, but Beijing is signaling that it will relaunch mega-projects after a break of several years in efforts to meet skyrocketing demands for energy and water, reduce dependence on coal and lift some 300 million people out of poverty.
Official media recently said China was poised to put up dams on the still pristine Nu River, known as the Salween downstream. Seven years ago as many as 13 dams were set to go up until Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao ordered a moratorium.
That ban is regarded as the first and perhaps biggest victory of China's nascent green movement.
"An improper exploitation of water resources by countries on the upper reaches is going to bring about environmental, social and geological risks," Yu Xiaogang, director of the Yunnan Green Watershed, told The Associated Press. "Countries along the rivers have already formed their own way of using water resources. Water shortages could easily ignite extreme nationalist sentiment and escalate into a regional war."
But there is little chance the activists will prevail.
"There is no alternative to dams in sight in China," says Ed Grumbine, an American author on Chinese dams. Grumbine, currently with the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Yunnan province, notes that under its last five-year state plan, China failed to meet its hydroelectric targets and is now playing catch-up in its 2011-2015 plan as it strives to derive 15 percent of energy needs from non-fossil sources, mainly hydroelectric and nuclear.
The arithmetic pointing to more dam-building is clear: China would need 140 megawatts of extra hydroelectric power to meet its goal. Even if all the dams on the Nu go up, they would provide only 21 megawatts.
The demand for water region-wide will also escalate, sparking perhaps that greatest anxieties - that China will divert large quantities from the Tibetan plateau for domestic use.
Noting that Himalayan glaciers which feed the rivers are melting due to global warming, India's Strategic Foresight Group last year estimated that in the coming 20 years India, China, Nepal and Bangladesh will face a depletion of almost 275 billion cubic meters (360 billion cubic yards) of annual renewable water.
Padukone expects China will have to divert water from Tibet to its dry eastern provinces. One plan for rerouting the Brahmaputra was outlined in an officially sanctioned 2005 book by a Chinese former army officer, Li Ling. Its title: "Tibet's Waters Will Save China,"
Analyst Chellaney believes "the issue is not whether China will reroute the Brahmaputra, but when." He cites Chinese researchers and officials as saying that after 2014 work will begin on tapping rivers flowing from the Tibetan plateau to neighboring countries Such a move, he says, would be tantamount to a declaration of war on India.
Others are skeptical. Tashi Tsering, a Tibetan environmentalist at the University of British Columbia who is otherwise critical of China's policies, calls a Brahmaputra diversion "a pipe dream of some Chinese planners."
Grumbine shares the skepticism. "The situation would have to be very dire for China to turn off the taps because the consequences would be huge," he said. "China would alienate every one of its neighbors and historically the Chinese have been very sensitive about maintaining secure borders."
Whatever else may happen, riverside inhabitants along the Mekong and Brahmaputra say the future shock is now.
A fisherman from his youth, Boonrian Chinnarat says the Mekong giant catfish, the world's largest freshwater fish, has all but vanished from the vicinity of Thailand's Had Krai village, other once bountiful species have been depleted, and he and fellow fishermen have sold their nets. He blames the Chinese dams.
Phumee Boontom, headman of nearby Pak Ing village, warns that "If the Chinese keep the water and continue to build more dams, life along the Mekong will change forever." Already, he says, he has seen drastic variations in water levels following dam constructions, "like the tides of the ocean -- low and high in one day."
Jeremy Bird, who heads the Mekong commission, an intergovernmental body of Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and Laos, sees a tendency to blame China for water-related troubles even when they are purely the result of nature. He says diplomacy is needed, and believes "engagement with China is improving."
Grumbine agrees. "Given the enormous demand for water in China, India and Southeast Asia, if you maintain the attitude of sovereign state, we are lost," he says. "Scarcity in a zero sum situation can lead to conflict but it can also goad countries into more cooperative behavior. It's a bleak picture, but I'm not without hope."
Asia: Governments Should Jointly Protect Migrant Workers
Dhaka - Ministers from Asian labor-sending countries meeting in Dhaka this week should together endorse protections for migrant workers, Human Rights Watch, Migrant Forum in Asia, and CARAM Asia said in a briefing paper released today. They should give priority to protecting migrant domestic workers, who are at especially high risk of abuse, and to ending recruitment-related exploitation, the organizations said.
On April 19 to 21, 2011, Bangladesh will host the fourth round of the "Colombo Process," a series of regional consultative meetings on Asian contractual migrant workers. Under the theme "Migration with Dignity," delegates from 11 Asian countries that send large numbers of workers abroad will discuss strategies to improve coordination, optimize benefits from migration, and prevent abuses at home and abroad. Several labor-receiving countries from Asia and the Middle East will attend as observers.
"Abuses against migrants are often linked to gaps in information, poor coordination, and competition for jobs, so it's a big deal for these governments to sit around the table and address these problems together," said Nisha Varia, senior women's rights researcher at Human Rights Watch. "The Dhaka meeting is also a chance to share information about successful reforms with other countries in the region."
The briefing paper, "Protecting Asian Migrants' Rights: Recommendations to Governments of the Colombo Process," urges delegates to pledge support for a proposed international convention on labor standards for domestic work, increase civil society participation in future regional dialogues, promote increased multilateral cooperation, and take measures to eliminate recruitment fees charged to migrant workers.
"We are encouraged that governments are reviving the Colombo Process, but migrant voices also belong at the table," said William Gois, coordinator for Migrant Forum in Asia, a regional network of 200 groups committed to protecting migrants' rights. "As the organizations and trade unions representing migrants, we would like to have greater access to the meetings and expanded opportunities to participate in the discussions."
Some 3 million Asian men and women migrate each year, a large proportion working in domestic service, construction, manufacturing, and agriculture in other Asian countries and the Gulf states. Migrant workers play a key economic role - they fill labor demands in host countries and in 2010, Asian migrants sent home an estimated US$175 billion in remittances. Gulf countries in particular rely heavily on Asian contract labor; for example, there is approximately one migrant domestic worker for every two Kuwaiti citizens. Migrants from Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka have fueled construction booms in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain.
But inadequate protections mean migrants also risk an array of abuses, the groups said, including recruitment-related deception and debts, unpaid wages, hazardous working conditions, physical and sexual abuse, and forced labor, including human trafficking. Unlicensed recruiters often operate with impunity, migrants have limited information about their rights and channels to seek help, and immigration policies can trap workers with abusive employers.
"When high, and often inflated, recruitment fees leave migrants heavily indebted, they are especially vulnerable to abuse," said Dr. Chowdhury Abrar, chairman of the international relations department at the University of Dhaka. "Cracking down on excessive fees and unethical recruitment practices will be a key ingredient to any reform."
Asian and Middle Eastern governments have introduced incremental reforms in recent years, and this year's forum will provide an opportunity to share best practices. While some countries have improved oversight of labor migration through bilateral agreements, uneven bargaining power between sending and receiving countries has meant that the resulting agreements are often weak. Such negotiations may also have unintended consequences, the groups said. When Indonesia froze migration of domestic workers to Malaysia in 2009 until a more protective Memorandum of Understanding could be concluded, recruiters from Malaysia turned to Cambodian workers instead.
"Even though migrants from Asia confront similar abuses while working abroad, their governments have typically addressed these bilaterally, and the results have been far weaker protections than if they negotiated together," said Mohammad Harun Al Rashid, regional coordinator for CARAM Asia.
In the wake of the departure of large numbers of migrants from Libya due to the armed conflict, governments at the Colombo Process meeting also plan to discuss coordinated responses to such emergency situations. Many Bangladeshi migrants were stranded in Egypt and Tunisia and had little means of returning home.
The International Organization for Migration provides technical support to the Colombo Process and serves as its secretariat. The labor-sending countries attending the Colombo Process include Afghanistan, Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam. Eight observer members represent countries of employment: Bahrain, Italy, Kuwait, Malaysia, Qatar, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.The previous three regional consultations took place in Colombo, Sri Lanka (2003), Manila, the Philippines (2004), and Bali, Indonesia (2005). In 2008, the United Arab Emirates was host for a meeting that brought together governments from the Colombo Process, Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Yemen, Singapore, and Malaysia.
On April 19 to 21, 2011, Bangladesh will host the fourth round of the "Colombo Process," a series of regional consultative meetings on Asian contractual migrant workers. Under the theme "Migration with Dignity," delegates from 11 Asian countries that send large numbers of workers abroad will discuss strategies to improve coordination, optimize benefits from migration, and prevent abuses at home and abroad. Several labor-receiving countries from Asia and the Middle East will attend as observers.
"Abuses against migrants are often linked to gaps in information, poor coordination, and competition for jobs, so it's a big deal for these governments to sit around the table and address these problems together," said Nisha Varia, senior women's rights researcher at Human Rights Watch. "The Dhaka meeting is also a chance to share information about successful reforms with other countries in the region."
The briefing paper, "Protecting Asian Migrants' Rights: Recommendations to Governments of the Colombo Process," urges delegates to pledge support for a proposed international convention on labor standards for domestic work, increase civil society participation in future regional dialogues, promote increased multilateral cooperation, and take measures to eliminate recruitment fees charged to migrant workers.
"We are encouraged that governments are reviving the Colombo Process, but migrant voices also belong at the table," said William Gois, coordinator for Migrant Forum in Asia, a regional network of 200 groups committed to protecting migrants' rights. "As the organizations and trade unions representing migrants, we would like to have greater access to the meetings and expanded opportunities to participate in the discussions."
Some 3 million Asian men and women migrate each year, a large proportion working in domestic service, construction, manufacturing, and agriculture in other Asian countries and the Gulf states. Migrant workers play a key economic role - they fill labor demands in host countries and in 2010, Asian migrants sent home an estimated US$175 billion in remittances. Gulf countries in particular rely heavily on Asian contract labor; for example, there is approximately one migrant domestic worker for every two Kuwaiti citizens. Migrants from Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka have fueled construction booms in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain.
But inadequate protections mean migrants also risk an array of abuses, the groups said, including recruitment-related deception and debts, unpaid wages, hazardous working conditions, physical and sexual abuse, and forced labor, including human trafficking. Unlicensed recruiters often operate with impunity, migrants have limited information about their rights and channels to seek help, and immigration policies can trap workers with abusive employers.
"When high, and often inflated, recruitment fees leave migrants heavily indebted, they are especially vulnerable to abuse," said Dr. Chowdhury Abrar, chairman of the international relations department at the University of Dhaka. "Cracking down on excessive fees and unethical recruitment practices will be a key ingredient to any reform."
Asian and Middle Eastern governments have introduced incremental reforms in recent years, and this year's forum will provide an opportunity to share best practices. While some countries have improved oversight of labor migration through bilateral agreements, uneven bargaining power between sending and receiving countries has meant that the resulting agreements are often weak. Such negotiations may also have unintended consequences, the groups said. When Indonesia froze migration of domestic workers to Malaysia in 2009 until a more protective Memorandum of Understanding could be concluded, recruiters from Malaysia turned to Cambodian workers instead.
"Even though migrants from Asia confront similar abuses while working abroad, their governments have typically addressed these bilaterally, and the results have been far weaker protections than if they negotiated together," said Mohammad Harun Al Rashid, regional coordinator for CARAM Asia.
In the wake of the departure of large numbers of migrants from Libya due to the armed conflict, governments at the Colombo Process meeting also plan to discuss coordinated responses to such emergency situations. Many Bangladeshi migrants were stranded in Egypt and Tunisia and had little means of returning home.
The International Organization for Migration provides technical support to the Colombo Process and serves as its secretariat. The labor-sending countries attending the Colombo Process include Afghanistan, Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam. Eight observer members represent countries of employment: Bahrain, Italy, Kuwait, Malaysia, Qatar, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.The previous three regional consultations took place in Colombo, Sri Lanka (2003), Manila, the Philippines (2004), and Bali, Indonesia (2005). In 2008, the United Arab Emirates was host for a meeting that brought together governments from the Colombo Process, Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Yemen, Singapore, and Malaysia.
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